Annual Seminar 2025
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| Monday, 7 April 2025 | Speaker(s) | |
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| 10:30 – 11:40 |
Arrival and registration
Gustav-Stresemann-Institut (GSI) Europäische Tagungs- und Bildungsstätte Bonn Langer Grabenweg 68 53175 Bonn-Bad Godesberg |
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Plenary: Setting the scene
Chair: Magdalena Alonso-Balmaseda, co-chair: Frederic Vitart |
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| 11:40 – 11:50 | Practicalities |
Leonie Beck
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| 11:50 – 12:00 | Opening |
Florence Rabier (ECMWF)
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| 12:00 – 12:30 |
On the need to constrain Earth System models using observations
Presentation slides Video recording |
Detlef Stammer (University of Hamburg)
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| 12:30 – 12:45 |
ECMWF strategy and research directions
Presentation slides Video recording |
Andy Brown (ECMWF)
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| 12:45 – 13:15 |
Forecasting tools for enhanced Decision making in Eastern Africa
Presentation slides Video recording |
Masilin Gudoshava (ICPAC)
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| 13:15 – 13:45 |
Advancing Weather and Climate Forecasting for Our Changing World
Presentation slides Video recording |
Gilbert Brunet (Former employee of ECCC/BoM and Met Office)
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| 13:45 – 14:15 |
Sub-seasonal Prediction: Advances, Challenges and Opportunities
Presentation slides Video recording |
Frederic Vitart (ECMWF)
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| 14:15 – 14:35 | Coffee break | |
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Plenary continued
Chair: Antje Weisheimer, co-chair: Linus Magnusson
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| 14:35 – 15:05 |
ENSO as a meeting point between weather and climate forecasting
Presentation slides Video recording |
Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda (ECMWF)
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| 15:05 – 15:35 |
Machine learning as game changer in forecasting: an overview of approaches and applications
Presentation slides Video recording |
Matthew Chantry (ECMWF)
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Drinks reception
Federal Ministry for Digital and Transport (BMDV) Robert-Schuman-Platz 1 53175 Bonn |
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| 16:00 – 16:30 | Welcome drinks | |
| 16:30 – 16:35 | Opening and welcome by moderator |
Steffen Müller (BMDV)
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| 16:35 – 17:00 |
Welcome speeches
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| 17:00 – 18:00 | Canapés and drinks | |
Agenda time displays according to the selected time zone.
| Tuesday, 8 April 2025 | Speaker(s) | |
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| 07:30 – 08:00 |
Arrival and registration
Gustav-Stresemann-Institut (GSI) Europäische Tagungs- und Bildungsstätte Bonn Langer Grabenweg 68 53175 Bonn-Bad Godesberg |
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Theme 1: Evolving models and data assimilation capabilities
Chair: Nils Wedi, co-chair: Tobias Becker
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| 08:00 – 08:30 |
The future of Earth system modelling
Presentation slides Video recording |
Peter Dueben (ECMWF)
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| 08:30 – 09:00 |
Advancing km-scale models underpinning the Destination Earth Digital Twins
Presentation slides Video recording |
Benoît Vannière (ECMWF)
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| 09:00 – 09:30 |
AI for Climate Modeling: Present and Future
Presentation slides Video recording |
Christopher Bretherton (Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence)
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| 09:30 – 10:00 | Coffee break | |
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Theme 1 continued
Chair: Sarah Keeley, co-chair: Xabier Pedruzo |
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| 10:00 – 10:30 |
Ocean heat uptake in the era of eddying ocean models and AI
Presentation slides Video recording |
Alistair Adcroft (Princeton University)
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| 10:30 – 11:00 |
Improving the monitoring of vegetation and drought by land surface models through the assimilation of satellite data
Presentation slides Video recording |
Jean-Christophe Calvet (Meteo-France)
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| 11:00 – 11:30 |
Towards Regional High-Resolution Weather Forecasting with Machine Learning
Presentation slides Video recording |
Jørn Kristiansen (MET Norway)
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| 11:30 – 13:30 | Lunch and posters | |
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Theme 1 continued
Chair: Massimo Bonavita, co-chair: Katrin Lonitz |
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| 13:30 – 14:00 |
Progress and prospects on coupled data assimilation, for exploitation of interface observations and in support of climate monitoring and weather prediction
Presentation slides Video recording |
Patricia de Rosnay (ECMWF)
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| 14:00 – 14:30 |
The ERA6 Reanalysis
Presentation slides Video recording |
Bill Bell (ECMWF)
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| 14:30 – 15:00 | Group photo and coffee break | |
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Theme 1 continued
Chair: Patricia de Rosnay, co-chair: Paul Poli |
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| 15:00 – 15:30 |
ECMWF’s next ensemble reanalysis system for ocean and sea-ice: ORAS6
Presentation slides Video recording |
Hao Zuo (ECMWF)
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| 15:30 – 16:00 |
Observations: The Noisy Revolution
Presentation slides Video recording |
Tony McNally (ECMWF)
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Agenda displayed in selected time zone
| Wednesday, 9 April 2025 | Speaker(s) | |
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| 07:30 – 08:00 |
Arrival and registration
Federal Ministry for Digital and Transport (BMDV) Robert-Schuman-Platz 1 53175 Bonn |
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Theme 2: Serving a future society
Chair: Estibaliz Gascon, co-chair: Eduardo Penabad
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| 08:00 – 08:30 |
Services across time scales and Earth system component – an ECMWF perspective
Presentation slides Video recording |
Matthieu Chevallier (ECMWF)
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| 08:30 – 09:00 |
Services across time scales and components at MeteoSwiss
Presentation slides Video recording |
Christian M. Grams (Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology, MeteoSwiss, Zurich-Airport, Switzerland)
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| 09:00 – 09:30 |
Challenges in transforming traditional weather services to the changing needs of society
Presentation slides Video recording |
Renate Hagedorn (DWD)
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| 09:30 – 10:00 | Coffee break | |
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Theme 2 continued
Chair: Anca Brookshaw, co-chair: Sebastian Milinski |
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| 10:00 – 10:30 |
Great potential for S2S applications and services: examples from Europe and Africa
Presentation slides Video recording |
Erik Kolstad (NORCE Norwegian Research Centre)
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| 10:30 – 11:00 |
Understanding, predicting and communicating high impact weather events across Africa
Presentation slides Video recording |
Linda Hirons (National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), Department of Meteorology, University of Reading)
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| 11:00 – 11:30 |
The Destination Earth Digital Twin for Climate Change Adaptation
Presentation slides Video recording |
Sebastian Milinski (ECMWF)
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| 11:30 – 13:00 | Lunch and posters | |
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Theme 2 continued
Chair: Carlo Buontempo, co-chair: Chiara Cagnazzo |
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| 13:00 – 13:30 |
Climate services at a national level and its coordination with Copernicus: the example of Germany
Presentation slides Video recording |
Sarah Jones (Deutscher Wetterdienst)
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| 13:30 – 14:00 |
The evolution of climate services and future challenges
Presentation slides Video recording |
Chris Hewitt (World Meteorological Organization)
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| 14:00 – 14:30 |
Beyond weather: serving society through CAMS and C3S
Presentation slides Video recording |
Carlo Buontempo (ECMWF)
Laurence Rouil (ECMWF)
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| 14:30 – 15:00 | Group photo and coffee break | |
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Theme 2 continued
Chair: Laurence Rouil, co-chair: Richard Engelen |
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| 15:00 – 15:30 |
Protecting public health through addressing air pollution and climate action
Presentation slides Video recording |
Dorota Jarosinska (WHO European Centre for Environment and Health)
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| 15:30 – 16:00 |
EU clean air policy : opportunities for enhanced cooperation with CAMS
Presentation slides Video recording |
Francois Wakenhut (European Commission)
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| 16:00 – 16:30 |
Providing environmental knowledge to our future society – the role of the European Environment Agency
Presentation slides Video recording |
Ian Marnane (European Environment Agency)
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| 16:30 – 17:00 |
The outlines of IPCC AR7, and challenges for physical sciences
Presentation slides Video recording |
Robert Vautard (IPSL)
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Agenda time displays according to the selected time zone.
| Thursday, 10 April 2025 | Speaker(s) | |
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| 07:30 – 08:00 |
Arrival and registration
Federal Ministry for Digital and Transport (BMDV) Robert-Schuman-Platz 1 53175 Bonn |
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Theme 3: Changing sources of predictability across time scales
Chair: Chris Roberts, co-chair: Tim Stockdale
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| 08:00 – 08:30 |
Perspectives on medium-range predictability – Why does a forecast go wrong?
Presentation slides Video recording |
Linus Magnusson (ECMWF)
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| 08:30 – 09:00 |
Tropical-extratropical teleconnections: the role of midlatitude synoptic systems
Presentation slides Video recording |
Julian Quinting (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology)
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| 09:00 – 09:30 |
The role of the stratosphere in extended-range prediction
Presentation slides Video recording |
Daniela Domeisen (University of Lausanne)
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| 09:30 – 10:00 | Coffee break | |
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Theme 3 continued
Chair: Steffen Tietsche, co-chair: Matthias Aengenheyster |
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| 10:00 – 10:30 |
The role of the ocean in predictability at different lead times
Presentation slides Video recording |
Chris Roberts (ECWMF)
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| 10:30 – 11:00 |
Some outcomes of extreme event attribution
Presentation slides Video recording |
Pascal Yiou (LSCE, IPSL, France)
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| 11:00 – 11:30 |
Frontiers in subseasonal to decadal prediction: A WCRP perspective
Presentation slides Video recording |
Bill Merryfield (ECCC/CCCma)
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| 11:30 – 13:00 | Lunch and posters | |
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Theme 3 continued
Chair: Frederic Vitart, co-chair: Bianca Mezzina |
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| 13:00 – 13:30 |
Ensemble forecasting and the representation of uncertainties
Presentation slides Video recording |
Martin Leutbecher (ECMWF)
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| 13:30 – 14:00 |
Evaluating seasonal forecast improvements over the past two decades
Presentation slides Video recording |
Christopher O'Reilly (University of Reading)
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| 14:00 – 14:30 |
Machine-learned weather forecasting with AIFS
Virtual presentationPresentation slides Video recording |
Simon Lang (ECMWF)
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| 14:30 – 15:00 | Coffee break | |
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Theme 3 continued
Chair: Mariana Clare, co-chair: Jacob Schloer |
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| 15:00 – 15:30 |
Seasonal forecasts in a changing climate
Presentation slides Video recording |
Antje Weisheimer (ECMWF)
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| 15:30 – 16:00 |
Tropical Pacific trends in seasonal hindcasts and implications for predictions of the 2020-2022 triple-dip La Niña
Presentation slides Video recording |
Michael Mayer (ECMWF and University of Vienna)
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| 16:00 – 16:30 |
Making the impact of climate change on weather and environmental extremes more tangible using storylines
Presentation slides Video recording |
Thomas Jung (AWI)
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| 16:30 – 17:00 |
Understanding and Evaluating Trust in AI forecasts
Virtual presentationPresentation slides Video recording |
Amy McGovern (University of Oklahoma)
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All times are displayed according to the selected time zone.
| Friday, 11 April 2025 | Speaker(s) | |
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| 07:30 – 08:00 |
Arrival and registration
Gustav-Stresemann-Institut (GSI) Europäische Tagungs- und Bildungsstätte Bonn Langer Grabenweg 68 53175 Bonn-Bad Godesberg |
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Plenary: Scoping the future of forecasting
Chair: Linus Magnusson, co-chair: Daniel Befort
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| 08:00 – 08:30 |
Seasonal forecasting: models, reanalyses, forcings
Presentation slides Video recording |
Tim Stockdale (ECMWF)
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| 08:30 – 09:00 |
Production and use of decadal climate predictions
Presentation slides Video recording |
Francisco Doblas-Reyes (BSC)
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| 09:00 – 09:30 |
Quantifying trends in extreme weather risk using operational ensemble forecasting systems
Presentation slides Video recording |
Myles Allen (University of Oxford)
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| 09:30 – 10:00 | Coffee break | |
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Plenary continued
Moderators: Magdalena Balmaseda, Antje Weisheimer Rapporteur: Frederic Vitart, Linus Magnusson |
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| 10:00 – 10:30 |
Exploring the Limit of Predictability with Machine Learning Models
Presentation slides Video recording |
Greg Hakim (University of Washington)
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| 10:30 – 11:30 |
Panel discussion
Panellists:
Video recording |
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