Programme
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Monday
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| Monday, | ||
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| 12:00 to 14:00 |
Registration and lunch
Registration in the Weather Room
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| 14:00 to 14:15 |
Welcome and introduction
Matthieu Chevallier (Head of Evaluation Section, ECMWF)
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Predictability
Chair: Sarah-Jane Lock |
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| 14:15 to 14:45 | Diagnostics for investigating the representation of synoptic-scale processes in models and their benefit for medium- to extended-range prediction |
Speaker: Christian M. Grams (MeteoSwiss)
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| 14:45 to 15:05 | Diabatic heating as a diagnostic for predictability on weather to intra-seasonal time scales |
Speaker: David Straus (George Mason University)
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| 15:05 to 15:25 | ‘Forecast busts’ over Europe in ERA5 reforecasts: Characteristics and predictions using neural networks |
Speaker: Seraphine Hauser (School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA)
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| 15:25 to 15:55 | Coffee break | |
| 15:55 to 16:15 | The transition from practical to intrinsic predictability and how to diagnose it |
Speaker: Tobias Selz (LMU München)
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| 16:15 to 16:45 |
Discussion 1 - What is ultimate predictability, and what is holding NWP back?
Rapporteur: Inna Polichtchouk |
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| 16:45 to 17:45 |
Icebreaker reception
Weather Room |
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Tuesday
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| Tuesday, | ||
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Processes 1
Chair: Richard Forbes
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| 09:30 to 10:00 | Diagnosing Mesoscale Convective Systems in DYAMOND Models: A Feature Tracking Intercomparison |
Speaker: Zhe Feng (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)
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| 10:00 to 10:20 | Evaluation and Error Analysis of the July 2021 Extremely Severe Rainstorm in Henan Province Simulated by CMA-MESO Model |
Speaker: Ziwei Wan (CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre)
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| 10:20 to 10:40 | The Challenge of Representing Extreme Rainfall Events in Global Models |
Speaker: David B. Parsons (University of Oklahoma)
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| 10:40 to 11:00 | The role of eddy momentum flux on the organisation of shallow convection |
Speaker: Alessandro Savazzi (TuDelft)
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| 11:00 to 11:30 | Coffee break | |
| 11:30 to 11:50 | Model Uncertainty – MIP |
Speaker: Hannah Christensen (University of Oxford)
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| 11:50 to 12:10 | ICECAP - A tool to analyse multi-centre sea-ice forecasts from days to seasons |
Speaker: Steffen Tietsche (ECMWF)
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| 12:10 to 12:30 | Process-based diagnostics using atmosphere budget analysis and nudging technique to identify sources of model systematic errors in global MetUM |
Speaker: Chihiro Matsukawa (Japan Meteorological Agency, Met Office)
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| 12:30 to 12:50 | Process-based diagnostics of the impact of new observing systems: a case study of the Aeolus wind satellite |
Speaker: Robin Pilch Kedzierski (University of Hamburg)
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| 12:50 to 13:50 | Lunch break | |
| 13:50 to 14:20 | Research on Error Traceability Technology Based on Scale Analysis |
Speaker: Bin Zhao (CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre, China Meteorological Administration)
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| 14:20 to 14:50 |
Discussion 2 - What are the key model process errors and uncertainties?
Rapporteur: Luise Schulte |
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| Posters | ||
| 14:50 to 15:30 |
Introduction to posters
Chair: Linus Magnusson |
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| 15:30 to 17:00 | Poster session | |
Wednesday
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| Wednesday, | ||
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Machine learning
Chair: Michael Maier-Gerber |
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| 09:30 to 09:50 | Do AI models produce better weather forecasts than physics-based models? A quantitative evaluation case study of Storm Ciarán |
Speaker: Simon Driscoll (University of Reading)
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| 09:50 to 10:10 | Global deep-learning weather prediction model evaluation and error diagnostics |
Speaker: Uroš Perkan (University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics)
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| 10:10 to 10:30 | Can ML help end users increase forecast successes and highlight potential busts |
Speaker: Isla Finney (Lake Street Consulting Ltd)
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| 10:30 to 11:00 |
Discussion 3 - Why are AI models so competitive, and are they physically consistent?
Rapporteur: Linus Magnusson |
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| 11:00 to 11:30 | Coffee break and group photo | |
| Host talk | ||
| 11:30 to 11:50 | Scale-dependent evaluation and fair comparison of ensemble systems |
Speaker: Mark Rodwell (ECMWF)
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Processes 2
Chair: Frederic Vitart |
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| 11:50 to 12:20 | Diagnosing tropical waves |
Speaker: Peter Knippertz (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT))
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| 12:20 to 12:40 | Tropical Wave Diagnostics and Their Applications to Numerical Weather Models |
Speaker: Quinton Lawton (University of Miami)
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| 12:40 to 13:00 | The Maritime Continent barrier effect on MJO predictability |
Speaker: Hyemi Kim (Ewha Womans University)
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| 13:00 to 14:00 | Lunch break | |
| 14:00 to 14:30 | Diagnostics for Tropical cyclone prediction : from the S2S scale to the mesoscale |
Speaker: Philippe Peyrillé (Météo-France)
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| 14:30 to 15:00 |
Discussion 4 - The tropical elephant in the forecasting room?
Rapporteur: Rebecca Emerton |
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| 15:00 to 15:30 | Coffee break | |
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Community data and tools
Chair: David Lavers |
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| 15:30 to 15:50 | Diagnostics Package for MJO-Teleconnections |
Speaker: Chaim Garfinkel (Hebrew University)
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| 15:50 to 16:10 | The Ensemble Museums – a diagnostic tool of weather forecasting- |
Speaker: Mio Matsueda (Univesity of the Ryukyus/University of Tsukuba)
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| 16:10 to 16:30 | The development and implementation of diagnostics for ERA5 and ERA6 |
Speaker: Alison Cobb (ECMWF)
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| 16:30 to 17:00 |
Discussion 5 - The importance of community datasets and intercomparison
Rapporteur: Alison Cobb |
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| 18:30 to 21:00 | Dinner in Reading town centre | |
Thursday
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| Thursday, | ||
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Resolution and scale interactions
Chair: Inna Polichtchouk
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| 09:30 to 10:00 | Diagnostic approaches for the GLObal-to-Regional ICON (GLORI) Digital Twin |
Speaker: Chiara Marsigli (DWD)
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| 10:00 to 10:20 | Flow dependence of error growth: Potential-vorticity diagnostics and feature tracking |
Speaker: Michael Riemer
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| 10:20 to 10:40 | Case study of error-growth from mesoscale convection near the intrinsic limit: combining potential vorticity error growth tendencies with ensemble sensitivity analysis |
Speaker: Edward Groot (AOPP, University of Oxford)
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| 10:40 to 11:00 | Inspecting high-resolution coupled models in a scale-aware way |
Speaker: Matthias Aengenheyster (ECMWF)
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| 11:00 to 11:30 | Coffee break | |
| 11:30 to 12:00 | Challenges in the evaluation of the K-Scale hierarchy |
Speaker: Claudio Sanchez (Met Office)
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| 12:00 to 12:30 |
Discussion 6 - Does resolution matter in global NWP?
Rapporteur: Richard Forbes |
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| 12:30 to 13:00 |
Plenary discussion - What have we learnt? Diagnostic success stories? Diagnostic priorities? The ingredients of the perfect diagnostic?
Chair: Mark Rodwell Rapporteur: Sarah-Jane Lock |
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