Programme
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Monday
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| Monday, 5 June 2023 | ||
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| Opening | ||
| 13:00 to 14:00 | Registration and coffee | |
| 14:00 to 14:10 |
Welcome
Video recording |
Florence Rabier (ECMWF)
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| 14:10 to 14:15 | Housekeeping |
Becky Hemingway (ECMWF)
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Themed session: ECMWF Updates
Chair: Becky Hemingway (ECMWF)
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| 14:15 to 14:40 |
What does the future hold?
Presentation slides Video recording |
Florian Pappenberger (ECMWF)
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| 14:40 to 15:05 |
ECMWF research progress and plan
Presentation slides Video recording |
Stephen English (ECMWF)
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| 15:05 to 15:35 | Coffee break | |
| 15:35 to 15:45 |
Ensemble forecasting: Introducing the theme
Presentation slides Video recording |
Becky Hemingway (ECMWF)
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| 15:45 to 16:10 |
ECMWF's ensemble forecasts
Presentation slides Video recording |
Simon Lang (ECMWF)
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Invited Speaker
Chair: Becky Hemingway (ECMWF)
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| 16:10 to 16:50 |
Ensemble forecasting with limited-area models: the challenge of the high-resolution
Presentation slides Video recording |
Chiara Marsigli (Deutscher Wetterdienst and Arpae-SIMC)
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| Poster session | ||
| 16:50 to 18:00 | Poster session and drinks reception in the Weather Room | |
Tuesday
The time displays according to the selected time zone.
| Tuesday, 6 June 2023 | ||
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Invited speaker
Chair: Sarah-Jane Lock (ECMWF)
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| 09:00 to 09:40 |
Exploiting Ensemble NWP Forecasts
Presentation slides Video recording |
Ken Mylne (Met Office)
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Themed session: Using ensemble models and data
Chair: Sarah-Jane Lock (ECMWF)
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| 09:40 to 10:00 |
Processing ECMWF Ensemble Data for use in Met Office Systems
Presentation slides Video recording |
Simon Boardman (Met Office)
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| 10:00 to 10:20 |
Can understanding why ensembles are under-dispersive help when forecasting?
Presentation slides |
Isla Finney (Lake Street Consulting Ltd)
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| 10:20 to 10:40 |
Using expired weather forecasts to supply up to 10 000 years of weather data for renewable modelling
Presentation slides Video recording |
Petr Dolezal (University of Cambridge)
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| 10:40 to 10:50 | Group photo | |
| 10:50 to 11:30 | Coffee break | |
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Themed session: Ensemble forecast applications and products
Chair: Milana Vuckovic (ECMWF)
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| 11:30 to 11:50 |
Clustering technique considering temporal coherence of ensemble members
Presentation slides Video recording |
Kosuke Ono (Meteorological research institute, Japan Meteorological Agency)
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| 11:50 to 12:20 |
The use of ECMWF ensembles within a new seamless blended multi-model version of the Met Office's probabilistic weather pattern forecasting tool
Presentation slides Video recording |
Robert Neal (Met Office)
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| 12:20 to 12:40 |
Using ensemble models to provide a deterministic forecast in an operational context
Presentation slides Video recording |
Alexandre Trajan (Météo-France)
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| 12:40 to 13:00 |
Evaluation of convective storm predictors in mainland Portugal based on ECMWF ensemble and deterministic forecasts
Presentation slides Video recording |
Margarida Belo-Pereira ( Portuguese Institute of Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA))
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| 13:00 to 14:00 | Lunch break | |
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Themed session (continued): ECMWF Updates
Chair: Becky Hemingway (ECMWF) |
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| 14:00 to 14:25 |
ECMWF product development
Presentation slides Video recording |
Matthieu Chevallier (ECMWF)
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| 14:25 to 14:50 |
ECMWF forecast performance
Presentation slides Video recording |
Thomas Haiden (ECMWF)
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| 14:50 to 15:20 | Coffee break | |
| Interactive session | ||
| 15:20 to 17:00 |
User Voice Corner
Presentation by Tim Hewson followed by discussions led by ECMWF staff Presentation slides Video recording |
Tim Hewson (ECMWF)
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| UEF Dinner | ||
| 18:30 to 20:30 |
Côte Brasserie (Reading Town Centre)
For pre-registered participants only |
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Wednesday
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| Wednesday, 7 June 2023 | ||
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Themed session: Ensemble based decision making and impact forecasting
Chair: Matthieu Chevallier (ECMWF)
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| 09:00 to 09:40 |
Invited speaker: Probabilistic Hazard Information and Related Proposed Advancements in US Severe Weather Warnings
Presentation slides Video recording |
Patrick Campbell (University of Oklahoma / CIWRO / NSSL)
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| 09:40 to 10:00 |
Approaches for making ensemble forecasting based services more suitable to end-users' needs
Presentation slides Video recording |
Matteo Ponzano (Météo-France, Meteorological Services)
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| 10:00 to 10:20 |
Development of heat wave impact-based forecast guidance using multi-model ensemble system
Presentation slides Video recording |
Hyun-Cheol Shin (Korea Meteorological Administration)
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| 10:20 to 10:40 |
Assessing the impact of weather forecast uncertainties in crop water stress model predictions
Presentation slides Video recording |
Bachar Tarraf (CNRM, Météo France)
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| 10:40 to 11:20 | Coffee break | |
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Themed session: Re-forecasting
Chair: Chris Roberts (ECMWF)
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| 11:20 to 11:40 |
Upgrades to medium/extended range reforecasts and the SEAS6 configuration: an update
Presentation slides Video recording |
Magdalena Balmaseda (ECMWF)
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| 11:40 to 11:50 |
User presentation: Verifying ECMWF‘s extended-range (re)forecasts: from large-scale weather to local extremes
Presentation slides Video recording |
Dominik Büeler (ETH Zurich)
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| 11:50 to 13:00 |
Re-forecasting plenary discussion
Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda (ECMWF) Frederic Vitart (ECMWF) Tim Hewson (ECMWF) Dominik Büeler (ETH Zurich) |
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| 13:00 to 14:00 | Lunch break | |
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Themed session: Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal to Climate
Chair: Stijn Vermoote (ECMWF)
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| 14:00 to 14:20 |
Seasonal forecasts from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)
Presentation slides Video recording |
Anca Brookshaw (ECMWF)
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| 14:20 to 14:40 |
Post-processing of seasonal meteorological forecasts using fuzzy logic; application to the Jucar River Basin District
Presentation slides Video recording |
Dariana Isamel Avila Velasquez (Universitat Politècnica de València, Institute of Water and Environmental Engineering (IIAMA))
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| 14:40 to 15:00 |
Assessment of ECMWF SEAS5 Skill for monthly rainfall prediciton over Indonesia
Presentation slides Video recording |
Robi Muharsyah (Indonesia Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysic)
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| 15:00 to 15:20 |
Subs-seasonal to seasonal forecasts for agriculture in Bangladesh
Presentation slides Video recording |
Bob Ammerlaan (Weather Impact BV)
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| 15:20 to 15:25 | Introduction to the Ensemble discussions |
Becky Hemingway (ECMWF)
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| 15:25 to 16:00 | Coffee break | |
| Ensemble discussions | ||
| 16:00 to 17:00 | Group discussions on the use of ensembles | |
Thursday
The time displays according to the selected time zone.
| Thursday, 8 June 2023 | ||
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Themed session: Ensembles and Machine Learning
Chair: Umberto Modigliani (ECMWF)
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| 09:00 to 09:20 |
Creating skillful and reliable probabilistic forecasts using machine learning
Presentation slides Video recording |
Mariana Clare (ECMWF)
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| 09:20 to 09:40 |
Post-processing high-resolution weather forecasts with deep learning to create operational ensembles
Presentation slides Video recording |
Forest Cannon (Tomorrow.io)
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| 09:40 to 10:00 |
Boosting forecast of precipitation extremes with machine learning
Presentation slides Video recording |
Federico Grazzini (LMU Muenchen/ARPAE-SIMC)
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| 10:00 to 10:20 |
Evaluation of machine-learning models for medium-range forecasts at ECMWF
Presentation slides Video recording |
Linus Magnusson (ECMWF)
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| 10:20 to 10:40 |
CLINT - An AI-enhanced operational demonstrator of sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting of detection and attribution of heat waves and warm nights
Presentation slides Video recording |
Harilaos Loukos (The Climate Data Factory)
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| 10:40 to 11:00 | Coffee break | |
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Themed session: Ensemble forecast applications and products
Chair: Umberto Modigliani (ECMWF)
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| 11:10 to 11:30 |
Analog Ensemble Forecasting System for Low-Visibility Conditions over the Main Airports of Morocco
Presentation slides Video recording |
Badreddine Alaoui (DGM (Morocco))
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| 11:30 to 11:50 |
Is it possible to identify areas at flash flood risk with global rainfall forecasts? A comparative study between ECMWF ensemble and point-scale post-processed rainfall forecasts
Presentation slides Video recording |
Fatima Pillosu (ECMWF)
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| 11:50 to 12:50 |
Speakers' Corner
Presentation slides Video recording |
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| 12:50 to 13:00 |
Concluding remarks
Video recording |
Florian Pappenberger (ECMWF)
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