Using ECMWF's Forecasts (UEF2023)
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| Monday, 5 June 2023 | Speaker(s) | |
|---|---|---|
| 13:00 – 14:15 | Opening | |
| 13:00 – 14:00 | Registration and coffee | |
| 14:00 – 14:10 |
Welcome
Video recording |
Florence Rabier (ECMWF)
|
| 14:10 – 14:15 | Housekeeping |
Becky Hemingway (ECMWF)
|
| 14:15 – 16:10 |
Themed session: ECMWF Updates
Chair: Becky Hemingway (ECMWF)
|
|
| 14:15 – 14:40 |
What does the future hold?
Presentation slides Video recording |
Florian Pappenberger (ECMWF)
|
| 14:40 – 15:05 |
ECMWF research progress and plan
Presentation slides Video recording |
Stephen English (ECMWF)
|
| 15:05 – 15:35 | Coffee break | |
| 15:35 – 15:45 |
Ensemble forecasting: Introducing the theme
Presentation slides Video recording |
Becky Hemingway (ECMWF)
|
| 15:45 – 16:10 |
ECMWF's ensemble forecasts
Presentation slides Video recording |
Simon Lang (ECMWF)
|
| 16:10 – 16:50 |
Invited Speaker
Chair: Becky Hemingway (ECMWF)
|
|
| 16:10 – 16:50 |
Ensemble forecasting with limited-area models: the challenge of the high-resolution
Presentation slides Video recording |
Chiara Marsigli (DWD)
|
| 16:50 – 18:30 | Poster session | |
| 16:50 – 18:00 | Poster session and drinks reception in the Weather Room | |
The time displays according to the selected time zone.
| Tuesday, 6 June 2023 | Speaker(s) | |
|---|---|---|
| 09:00 – 09:40 |
Invited speaker
Chair: Sarah-Jane Lock (ECMWF)
|
|
| 09:00 – 09:40 |
Exploiting Ensemble NWP Forecasts
Presentation slides Video recording |
Ken Mylne (Met Office)
|
| 09:40 – 10:50 |
Themed session: Using ensemble models and data
Chair: Sarah-Jane Lock (ECMWF)
|
|
| 09:40 – 10:00 |
Processing ECMWF Ensemble Data for use in Met Office Systems
Presentation slides Video recording |
Simon Boardman (Met Office)
|
| 10:00 – 10:20 |
Can understanding why ensembles are under-dispersive help when forecasting?
Presentation slides |
Isla Finney (Lake Street Consulting Ltd)
|
| 10:20 – 10:40 |
Using expired weather forecasts to supply up to 10 000 years of weather data for renewable modelling
Presentation slides Video recording |
Petr Dolezal (University of Cambridge)
|
| 10:40 – 10:50 | Group photo | |
| 10:50 – 11:30 | Coffee break | |
| 11:30 – 14:00 |
Themed session: Ensemble forecast applications and products
Chair: Milana Vuckovic (ECMWF)
|
|
| 11:30 – 11:50 |
Clustering technique considering temporal coherence of ensemble members
Presentation slides Video recording |
Kosuke Ono (Meteorological research institute, Japan Meteorological Agency)
|
| 11:50 – 12:20 |
The use of ECMWF ensembles within a new seamless blended multi-model version of the Met Office's probabilistic weather pattern forecasting tool
Presentation slides Video recording |
Robert Neal (Met Office)
|
| 12:20 – 12:40 |
Using ensemble models to provide a deterministic forecast in an operational context
Presentation slides Video recording |
Alexandre Trajan (Météo-France)
|
| 12:40 – 13:00 |
Evaluation of convective storm predictors in mainland Portugal based on ECMWF ensemble and deterministic forecasts
Presentation slides Video recording |
Margarida Belo-Pereira ( Portuguese Institute of Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA))
|
| 13:00 – 14:00 | Lunch break | |
| 14:00 – 15:20 |
Themed session (continued): ECMWF Updates
Chair: Becky Hemingway (ECMWF) |
|
| 14:00 – 14:25 |
ECMWF product development
Presentation slides Video recording |
Matthieu Chevallier (ECMWF)
|
| 14:25 – 14:50 |
ECMWF forecast performance
Presentation slides Video recording |
Thomas Haiden (ECMWF)
|
| 14:50 – 15:20 | Coffee break | |
| 15:20 – 17:00 | Interactive session | |
| 15:20 – 17:00 |
User Voice Corner
Presentation by Tim Hewson followed by discussions led by ECMWF staff Presentation slides Video recording |
Tim Hewson (ECMWF)
|
| 18:30 – 20:30 | UEF Dinner | |
| 18:30 – 20:30 |
Côte Brasserie (Reading Town Centre)
For pre-registered participants only |
|
The time displays according to the selected time zone.
| Wednesday, 7 June 2023 | Speaker(s) | |
|---|---|---|
| 09:00 – 11:10 |
Themed session: Ensemble based decision making and impact forecasting
Chair: Matthieu Chevallier (ECMWF)
|
|
| 09:00 – 09:40 |
Invited speaker: Probabilistic Hazard Information and Related Proposed Advancements in US Severe Weather Warnings
Presentation slides Video recording |
Patrick Campbell (University of Oklahoma / CIWRO / NSSL)
|
| 09:40 – 10:00 |
Approaches for making ensemble forecasting based services more suitable to end-users' needs
Presentation slides Video recording |
Matteo Ponzano (Météo-France, Meteorological Services)
|
| 10:00 – 10:20 |
Development of heat wave impact-based forecast guidance using multi-model ensemble system
Presentation slides Video recording |
Hyun-Cheol Shin (Korea Meteorological Administration)
|
| 10:20 – 10:40 |
Assessing the impact of weather forecast uncertainties in crop water stress model predictions
Presentation slides Video recording |
Bachar Tarraf (CNRM, Météo France)
|
| 10:40 – 11:20 | Coffee break | |
| 11:10 – 14:00 |
Themed session: Re-forecasting
Chair: Chris Roberts (ECMWF)
|
|
| 11:20 – 11:40 |
Upgrades to medium/extended range reforecasts and the SEAS6 configuration: an update
Presentation slides Video recording |
Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda (ECMWF)
|
| 11:40 – 11:50 |
User presentation: Verifying ECMWF‘s extended-range (re)forecasts: from large-scale weather to local extremes
Presentation slides Video recording |
Dominik Büeler (ETH Zurich)
|
| 11:50 – 13:00 |
Re-forecasting plenary discussion
Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda (ECMWF) Frederic Vitart (ECMWF) Tim Hewson (ECMWF) Dominik Büeler (ETH Zurich) |
|
| 13:00 – 14:00 | Lunch break | |
| 14:00 – 16:00 |
Themed session: Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal to Climate
Chair: Stijn Vermoote (ECMWF)
|
|
| 14:00 – 14:20 |
Seasonal forecasts from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)
Presentation slides Video recording |
Anca Brookshaw (ECMWF)
|
| 14:20 – 14:40 |
Post-processing of seasonal meteorological forecasts using fuzzy logic; application to the Jucar River Basin District
Presentation slides Video recording |
Dariana Isamel Avila Velasquez (Universitat Politècnica de València, Institute of Water and Environmental Engineering (IIAMA))
|
| 14:40 – 15:00 |
Assessment of ECMWF SEAS5 Skill for monthly rainfall prediciton over Indonesia
Presentation slides Video recording |
Robi Muharsyah (Indonesia Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysic)
|
| 15:00 – 15:20 |
Subs-seasonal to seasonal forecasts for agriculture in Bangladesh
Presentation slides Video recording |
Bob Ammerlaan (Weather Impact BV)
|
| 15:20 – 15:25 | Introduction to the Ensemble discussions |
Becky Hemingway (ECMWF)
|
| 15:25 – 16:00 | Coffee break | |
| 16:00 – 17:00 | Ensemble discussions | |
| 16:00 – 17:00 | Group discussions on the use of ensembles | |
The time displays according to the selected time zone.
| Thursday, 8 June 2023 | Speaker(s) | |
|---|---|---|
| 09:00 – 11:10 |
Themed session: Ensembles and Machine Learning
Chair: Umberto Modigliani (ECMWF)
|
|
| 09:00 – 09:20 |
Creating skillful and reliable probabilistic forecasts using machine learning
Presentation slides Video recording |
Mariana Clare (ECMWF)
|
| 09:20 – 09:40 |
Post-processing high-resolution weather forecasts with deep learning to create operational ensembles
Presentation slides Video recording |
Forest Cannon (Tomorrow.io)
|
| 09:40 – 10:00 |
Boosting forecast of precipitation extremes with machine learning
Presentation slides Video recording |
Federico Grazzini (ARPAE-SIMC)
|
| 10:00 – 10:20 |
Evaluation of machine-learning models for medium-range forecasts at ECMWF
Presentation slides Video recording |
Linus Magnusson (ECMWF)
|
| 10:20 – 10:40 |
CLINT - An AI-enhanced operational demonstrator of sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting of detection and attribution of heat waves and warm nights
Presentation slides Video recording |
Harilaos Loukos (TCDF, France)
|
| 10:40 – 11:00 | Coffee break | |
| 11:10 – 13:00 |
Themed session: Ensemble forecast applications and products
Chair: Umberto Modigliani (ECMWF)
|
|
| 11:10 – 11:30 |
Analog Ensemble Forecasting System for Low-Visibility Conditions over the Main Airports of Morocco
Presentation slides Video recording |
Badreddine Alaoui (DGM (Morocco))
|
| 11:30 – 11:50 |
Is it possible to identify areas at flash flood risk with global rainfall forecasts? A comparative study between ECMWF ensemble and point-scale post-processed rainfall forecasts
Presentation slides Video recording |
Fatima Pillosu (ECMWF)
|
| 11:50 – 12:50 |
Speakers' Corner
Presentation slides Video recording |
|
| 12:50 – 13:00 |
Concluding remarks
Video recording |
Florian Pappenberger (ECMWF)
|