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Monday, 5 June 2023
13:00 to 14:15 Opening
13:00 to 14:00 Registration and coffee
14:00 to 14:10 Welcome
Video recording
Speaker: Florence Rabier (ECMWF)
14:10 to 14:15 Housekeeping
Speaker: Becky Hemingway (ECMWF)
14:15 to 16:10 Themed session: ECMWF Updates
Chair: Becky Hemingway (ECMWF)
14:15 to 14:40 What does the future hold?
Presentation slides
Video recording
Speaker: Florian Pappenberger (ECMWF)
14:40 to 15:05 ECMWF research progress and plan
Presentation slides
Video recording
Speaker: Stephen English (ECMWF)
15:05 to 15:35 Coffee break
15:35 to 15:45 Ensemble forecasting: Introducing the theme
Presentation slides
Video recording
Speaker: Becky Hemingway (ECMWF)
15:45 to 16:10 ECMWF's ensemble forecasts
Presentation slides
Video recording
Speaker: Simon Lang (ECMWF)
16:10 to 16:50 Invited Speaker
Chair: Becky Hemingway (ECMWF)
16:10 to 16:50 Ensemble forecasting with limited-area models: the challenge of the high-resolution
Presentation slides
Video recording
Speaker: Chiara Marsigli (DWD)
16:50 to 18:30 Poster session
16:50 to 18:00 Poster session and drinks reception in the Weather Room

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Tuesday, 6 June 2023
09:00 to 09:40 Invited speaker
Chair: Sarah-Jane Lock (ECMWF)
09:00 to 09:40 Exploiting Ensemble NWP Forecasts
Presentation slides
Video recording
Speaker: Ken Mylne (Met Office)
09:40 to 10:50 Themed session: Using ensemble models and data
Chair: Sarah-Jane Lock (ECMWF)
09:40 to 10:00 Processing ECMWF Ensemble Data for use in Met Office Systems
Presentation slides
Video recording
Speaker: Simon Boardman (Met Office)
10:00 to 10:20 Can understanding why ensembles are under-dispersive help when forecasting?
Presentation slides
Speaker: Isla Finney (Lake Street Consulting Ltd)
10:20 to 10:40 Using expired weather forecasts to supply up to 10 000 years of weather data for renewable modelling
Presentation slides
Video recording
Speaker: Petr Dolezal (University of Cambridge)
10:40 to 10:50 Group photo
10:50 to 11:30 Coffee break
11:30 to 14:00 Themed session: Ensemble forecast applications and products
Chair: Milana Vuckovic (ECMWF)
11:30 to 11:50 Clustering technique considering temporal coherence of ensemble members
Presentation slides
Video recording
Speaker: Kosuke Ono (Meteorological research institute, Japan Meteorological Agency)
11:50 to 12:20 The use of ECMWF ensembles within a new seamless blended multi-model version of the Met Office's probabilistic weather pattern forecasting tool
Presentation slides
Video recording
Speaker: Robert Neal (Met Office)
12:20 to 12:40 Using ensemble models to provide a deterministic forecast in an operational context
Presentation slides
Video recording
Speaker: Alexandre Trajan (Météo-France)
12:40 to 13:00 Evaluation of convective storm predictors in mainland Portugal based on ECMWF ensemble and deterministic forecasts
Presentation slides
Video recording
Speaker: Margarida Belo-Pereira ( Portuguese Institute of Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA))
13:00 to 14:00 Lunch break
14:00 to 15:20 Themed session (continued): ECMWF Updates

Chair: Becky Hemingway (ECMWF)

14:00 to 14:25 ECMWF product development
Presentation slides
Video recording
Speaker: Matthieu Chevallier (ECMWF)
14:25 to 14:50 ECMWF forecast performance
Presentation slides
Video recording
Speaker: Thomas Haiden (ECMWF)
14:50 to 15:20 Coffee break
15:20 to 17:00 Interactive session
15:20 to 17:00 User Voice Corner

Presentation by Tim Hewson followed by discussions led by ECMWF staff


Presentation slides
Video recording
Speaker: Tim Hewson (ECMWF)
18:30 to 20:30 UEF Dinner
18:30 to 20:30 Côte Brasserie (Reading Town Centre)

For pre-registered participants only


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Wednesday, 7 June 2023
09:00 to 11:10 Themed session: Ensemble based decision making and impact forecasting
Chair: Matthieu Chevallier (ECMWF)
09:00 to 09:40 Invited speaker: Probabilistic Hazard Information and Related Proposed Advancements in US Severe Weather Warnings
Presentation slides
Video recording
Speaker: Patrick Campbell (University of Oklahoma / CIWRO / NSSL)
09:40 to 10:00 Approaches for making ensemble forecasting based services more suitable to end-users' needs
Presentation slides
Video recording
Speaker: Matteo Ponzano (Météo-France, Meteorological Services)
10:00 to 10:20 Development of heat wave impact-based forecast guidance using multi-model ensemble system
Presentation slides
Video recording
Speaker: Hyun-Cheol Shin (Korea Meteorological Administration)
10:20 to 10:40 Assessing the impact of weather forecast uncertainties in crop water stress model predictions
Presentation slides
Video recording
Speaker: Bachar Tarraf (CNRM, Météo France)
10:40 to 11:20 Coffee break
11:10 to 14:00 Themed session: Re-forecasting
Chair: Chris Roberts (ECMWF)
11:20 to 11:40 Upgrades to medium/extended range reforecasts and the SEAS6 configuration: an update
Presentation slides
Video recording
Speaker: Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda (ECMWF)
11:40 to 11:50 User presentation: Verifying ECMWF‘s extended-range (re)forecasts: from large-scale weather to local extremes
Presentation slides
Video recording
Speaker: Dominik Büeler (ETH Zurich)
11:50 to 13:00 Re-forecasting plenary discussion

Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda (ECMWF)

Frederic Vitart (ECMWF)

Tim Hewson (ECMWF)

Dominik Büeler (ETH Zurich)

13:00 to 14:00 Lunch break
14:00 to 16:00 Themed session: Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal to Climate
Chair: Stijn Vermoote (ECMWF)
14:00 to 14:20 Seasonal forecasts from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)
Presentation slides
Video recording
Speaker: Anca Brookshaw (ECMWF)
14:20 to 14:40 Post-processing of seasonal meteorological forecasts using fuzzy logic; application to the Jucar River Basin District
Presentation slides
Video recording
Speaker: Dariana Isamel Avila Velasquez (Universitat Politècnica de València, Institute of Water and Environmental Engineering (IIAMA))
14:40 to 15:00 Assessment of ECMWF SEAS5 Skill for monthly rainfall prediciton over Indonesia
Presentation slides
Video recording
Speaker: Robi Muharsyah (Indonesia Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysic)
15:00 to 15:20 Subs-seasonal to seasonal forecasts for agriculture in Bangladesh
Presentation slides
Video recording
Speaker: Bob Ammerlaan (Weather Impact BV)
15:20 to 15:25 Introduction to the Ensemble discussions
Speaker: Becky Hemingway (ECMWF)
15:25 to 16:00 Coffee break
16:00 to 17:00 Ensemble discussions
16:00 to 17:00 Group discussions on the use of ensembles

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Thursday, 8 June 2023
09:00 to 11:10 Themed session: Ensembles and Machine Learning
Chair: Umberto Modigliani (ECMWF)
09:00 to 09:20 Creating skillful and reliable probabilistic forecasts using machine learning
Presentation slides
Video recording
Speaker: Mariana Clare (ECMWF)
09:20 to 09:40 Post-processing high-resolution weather forecasts with deep learning to create operational ensembles
Presentation slides
Video recording
Speaker: Forest Cannon (Tomorrow.io)
09:40 to 10:00 Boosting forecast of precipitation extremes with machine learning
Presentation slides
Video recording
Speaker: Federico Grazzini (LMU Muenchen/ARPAE-SIMC)
10:00 to 10:20 Evaluation of machine-learning models for medium-range forecasts at ECMWF
Presentation slides
Video recording
Speaker: Linus Magnusson (ECMWF)
10:20 to 10:40 CLINT - An AI-enhanced operational demonstrator of sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting of detection and attribution of heat waves and warm nights
Presentation slides
Video recording
Speaker: Harilaos Loukos (The Climate Data Factory)
10:40 to 11:00 Coffee break
11:10 to 13:00 Themed session: Ensemble forecast applications and products
Chair: Umberto Modigliani (ECMWF)
11:10 to 11:30 Analog Ensemble Forecasting System for Low-Visibility Conditions over the Main Airports of Morocco
Presentation slides
Video recording
Speaker: Badreddine Alaoui (DGM (Morocco))
11:30 to 11:50 Is it possible to identify areas at flash flood risk with global rainfall forecasts? A comparative study between ECMWF ensemble and point-scale post-processed rainfall forecasts
Presentation slides
Video recording
Speaker: Fatima Pillosu (ECMWF)
11:50 to 12:50 Speakers' Corner

  • Meteograms with changing resolution and visibility meteograms – Cihan Sahin
  • ECMWF's convection-related products - Ivan Tsonevsky
  • Precipitation Type including the new freezing drizzle type – Tim Hewson
  • Extended range – Fernando Prates
  • New snow scheme - Gabriele Arduini


Presentation slides
Video recording
12:50 to 13:00 Concluding remarks
Video recording
Speaker: Florian Pappenberger (ECMWF)